One aspect of the imminent General Election in the UK
that is uniting garrulous pundits and expert psephologists is the exciting
unpredictability of its outcome.
If the pre-election opinion surveys are accurate, it would
appear that Scotland is thinking about consigning Labour to a fate similar to
what it bestowed on the Conservatives in reaction to the impact of “Thatcherism” a few
decades ago.
This is a nadir from which it has not recovered north of the border.
This is a nadir from which it has not recovered north of the border.
In England, it is expected that UKIP may steal a march on
the Conservatives in certain areas. It
may also jolt Labour out of its torpor in others; while the Greens have
eco-eyes set on Labour votes in several constituencies.
It may even be that UKIP, in the parlance of Northern
Ireland’s politics, might split the Conservative vote and cause a Labour victory
by default in one or two places.
Similarly, the Green Party might split the Labour vote in others and
open up success for the Conservatives.
A
YouGov survey suggests that some Conservative voters in Scotland might do the
unthinkable and vote Labour to keep the SNP from wielding influence.
Mature voters will have noticed that the Conservatives
have been criticised for courting what is condescendingly termed the “grey
vote.” This is a reference to enticements
such as the pensioner savings bonds, freeing access to pension annuities, and
the like.
Conservative leaders have also been criticised by Labour
of talking up the SNP’s prospects, allegations which add spice to an already
tasty haggis.
Speculation abounds as to
the role of smaller parties in the event of a hung Parliament in which neither
of the two big parties have sufficient MPs to form a single party majority
Government.
Who knows what is best and what will happen?
Observers delight in the glorious uncertainty
of it all.
At the same time, this
feeling is tinged with not a little concern about the need for statesmanship, strong
leadership and good government in a growingly dangerous world.
In the circumstances, the new MPs at Westminster will
have demonstrate responsibility and prioritise the national interest after the
votes are counted.
Opportunity for Northern Ireland voters
Austin Currie was a Minister in an earlier but short-lived incarnation of Northern Irish regional administration.
His response to criticism about the quality of our elected
representatives was to resort to the adage - “you get the politicians you
deserve.” Or vote for.
There are key questions for voters in Northern Ireland when
they weigh up the electoral options this time round that they have not faced up
to seriously before.
Do we really want
to preserve the status quo, or is it not time to shake things up a bit? Might it be worth thinking about changing the
voting habits of a lifetime? To try and make it a better place?
What are
the benefits for our children and grandchildren, if the electorate continues to
treat the election to the national Parliament of the UK as a regional event?
A total of 138 candidates are contesting the 18 available seats at Westminster.
Three of the UK’s national parties – the Greens, UKIP, and the Conservatives (but not Labour) - are actively campaigning in Northern Ireland constituencies. Unprecedented perhaps.
Three of the UK’s national parties – the Greens, UKIP, and the Conservatives (but not Labour) - are actively campaigning in Northern Ireland constituencies. Unprecedented perhaps.
In which case, is it not
opportune for voters to abandon parochial politics and instead think nationally
and globally?
There is a prima facie case to support the prospect of
voting Conservative or Green Party on 7 May.
The attraction of the Green Party is its
abiding conviction and evidence-based concern for the environment.
They are also radically opposed to
Conservative and Labour Party record and policies on the national economy.
The Greens provide a centre-left voting option in
the absence of Labour.
The Conservative Party is fielding candidates in 16 of
the Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies.
Leave aside reservations about issues such as the Conservative Party’s
attitude to Europe, failure to deliver on key elements of their mandate five
years ago (especially on the deficit), the refusal to raise taxes for that
purpose, the impact of cut-backs on public services and deprived areas, and the
growth of food banks in one of the world's richest countries.
If that is not
asking too much, Northern Ireland voters could take a leap and ditch ingrained electoral
behaviour to vote for the only one of the two national parties standing here which
will produce the next Prime Minister of the UK.
Awkward as it may be for some, or maybe for many, to
countenance and act on this proposition, a combination of difficult times
internationally, national economic imperatives, and the onward march of a new
century endorse the need for bold steps by citizens in deciding who to entrust
with their mandate.
Electoral apathy
The fact that many people still complain about the
performance of our local politicians and a lack of political leadership are
grounds for a radical rethink.
For those
who say they don’t vote here because sectarian politics disinterests them, this
General Election is their chance to exercise their democratic right.
Without
saying where he sources his statistics, a Belfast journalist claims that almost
half of the eligible electorate of Northern Ireland does not vote[1].
This shocking fact appears to include those who choose not
to register as well as those who choose not to use their registered vote.
Whereas the victorious candidates will
“represent” the majority of those who have voted in a particular constituency,
it means that the MP’s mandate falls well shy of the majority of his
constituents, those registered as well as those unregistered.
This is especially true where candidates may be competing with as many as eight others for the privilege to attend or abstain at Westminster.
How can they legitimately claim to be representitive?
Nelson Mandela confounded the established political mores
and ways of doing things in South Africa, a long march to freedom. He provided leadership after years of
incarceration, making peace with his oppressors and winning global respect.
If the majority of voters truly are
displeased with Northern Ireland’s political leadership, an opportunity
beckons. Failure to accept this challenge and a consequent continuation of things as they are could mean that the complainers should forfeit their case.
If Northern Ireland’s
politicians won’t provide radical thinking, should the people not show them
how?
Positive reasons in favour of changing voting
habits
The following bullet points summarise factors which
Northern Irish voters might consider to inform their voting strategy on May
7.
The first list is a range of positive
reasons in favour of voting either for the Green Party or else for the party
which takes its name from a beautiful place off the Ulster coast in Donegal, Tory
Island.
·
This is a national election, whose outcome is
determined with reference to national and international policies.
·
Labour is not standing in Northern Ireland; while the Conservative
Party platform includes its claim to be the party of working people (manifesto
launch 14042015). In the last election,
the Conservative leader changed his colour from blue to green. Are we now seeing another transformation - Red
Dave?
·
The UK needs a stable Government to restore the
country’s economic fortunes and do more about social cohesion. Having failed to deliver in one term and
aware of Conservatives’ bravado that Labour is inimical to business, the Conservative
Party manifesto and claims need be tested and rigorously held to account for a
further term. A second failure will not
easily be forgiven.
·
Labour deserted the working people of the UK
in 1997. Its profligacy, adhering to
bankrupt monetarist policies and deregulation of financial services merit
another five years of sack cloth and ashes on the back benches as penance.
·
If Northern Ireland wants to be on the
winning side, voting Conservative could earn dividends (the language of
capitalism which is understood by Conservatives).
·
If the Conservative constituency candidate is
able and dynamic, she/he may be worth voting for. For those who are on the centre-left, examine the Green Party
candidate’s credentials.
Additional reasons for changing voting
behaviour
This second group lists negative reasons for doing the
same thing (this is Northern Ireland after all).
These reasons are secondary yet supportive,
reflecting the alternative options and as such focus on the track record of
Northern Ireland’s regional political parties.
·
Northern Ireland’s established parties are
obsessed with regional and deep-rooted historical issues. Given Northern Ireland’s protracted habit of
tribal voting and taking account of the performance by our regional government
compared to Scotland, it might just be time to teach the DUP, Sinn Fein, and
other parties a lesson for the sake of future generations.
·
What is taking place on 7 May is a General
Election, not an independence referendum, not a border poll, not a vote for or
against retaining a kingdom united. The SNP leader made this point at the launch of her party's manifesto and it does not seem to be harming their electoral prospects.
As a General Election, therefore, different selection criteria apply in the choice of which candidate for whom to
vote.
·
The exclusion by the national broadcasters of
the Northern Ireland parties from the televised debates (and the failure of the
DUP to implement its bellicose threat of legal action) provides an unspoken yet
clear statement about the relevance of Northern Ireland’s political parties to
the UK and its electorate. Loyalty
unrequited.
·
Northern Ireland’s parties have disappointed
many with their track record in governance, particularly given the high
relative cost to the public purse. Low
marks on performance indicators. Devolution
has been dogged by frequent impasse and threats of collapse of its institutions. Is this what the Northern Ireland electorate
deserves? By stark contrast, the SNP
commands such public support based on governing Scotland (“our kith and kin”) in
a deliberately consensual manner. As a
result of its popularity and efficiency, it is expected to make sweeping gains
in the General Election. One UK
journalist describes the SNP surge as “more
like a tsunami.”[2]
·
Voting DUP is a waste of a vote. Another UK journalist describes them as “political extremists” adding that “while the Tories shamelessly fan
anti-Scottish resentment, one of their likely coalition partners (DUP) is a
homophobic, creationist, anti-women throwback to several centuries ago.[3]”
As potential kingmakers in a hung
Parliament, the DUP demand for an extra £1b over and above the normal subvention
for Northern Ireland’s overwhelmingly public sector economy is questioned as “mercenary."[4] Loyalty must be a scarce commodity as it comes at a premium price.
·
Voting Sinn Féin is a waste of a vote. Why mandate politicians to a legislature from
which they will continue to absent themselves? Groucho
Marx’s false modesty quip about not wanting to belong to an institution that
would have somebody like him as a member takes on a whole new meaning. Ourselves Alone is a party whose very name is
the antithesis of internationalism and being outward looking.
The party’s manifesto knows no shame, outbidding the DUP with a demand of
£1.5 billion from UK taxpayers. If
loyalty does not come cheap, the expected reward for absenteeism is colossal.
Conclusion
So,
what do we deserve? More of the same?
Stop moaning, think positive.
It’s time to decide.
©Michael
McSorley 2015
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